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Can anyone tell me what this means? Are they indicating the odds of LGD progressing are 95 percent?


#1

“Factors significantly associated with dysplasia progression were concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis (odds ratio [OR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8)…”

Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2017 May;15(5):665-674.e5. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2016.11.025. Epub 2016 Dec 1.
Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis With Low-Grade Dysplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Fumery M1, Dulai PS2, Gupta S3, Prokop LJ4, Ramamoorthy S5, Sandborn WJ2, Singh S6.
Author information
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
Little is known about outcomes of patients with ulcerative colitis with low-grade dysplasia (UC-LGD). We estimated the incidence of and risk factors for progression to colorectal cancer (CRC) in cohorts of patients with UC-LGD who underwent surveillance (surveillance cohort), and the prevalence of dysplasia-related findings among patients who underwent colectomy for UC-LGD (surgical cohort).
METHODS:
We performed a systematic literature review through June 1, 2016, to identify cohort studies of adults with UC-LGD. We estimated pooled incidence rates of CRC and risk factors associated with dysplasia progression in surveillance cohorts, and prevalence of synchronous advanced neoplasia (CRC and/or high-grade dysplasia) in surgical cohorts.
RESULTS:
In 14 surveillance cohort studies of 671 patients with UC-LGD (52 developed CRC), the pooled annual incidence of CRC was 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-1.3); the pooled annual incidence of advanced neoplasia was 1.8% (95% CI, 0.9-2.7). Risk of CRC was higher when LGD was diagnosed by expert gastrointestinal pathologist (1.5%) than by community pathologists (0.2%). Factors significantly associated with dysplasia progression were concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis (odds ratio [OR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8), invisible dysplasia (vs visible dysplasia; OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4), distal location (vs proximal location; OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.7), and multifocal dysplasia (vs unifocal dysplasia; OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.5-8.5). In 12 surgical cohort studies of 450 patients who underwent colectomy for UC-LGD, 34 patients had synchronous CRC (pooled prevalence, 17%; 95% CI, 8-33).
CONCLUSION:
In a systematic review of the literature, we found that among patients with UC-LGD under surveillance, the annual incidence of progression to CRC was 0.8%; differences in rates of LGD diagnosis varied with pathologists’ level of expertise. Concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis, invisible dysplasia, distal location, and multifocal LGD are high-risk features associated with dysplasia progression.
Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


#2

No, they are saying that the risk of developing CRC was 0.8% amongst the patients in the study. They are also saying that PSC patients had 3.4 times higher risk of developing CRC than patients without PSC.

The 95% confidence interval is just a way of telling how sure they are about the results.


#3

Thank you SO MUCH.


#4

I’m glad i could help you! :grinning:


#5

educating myself here looking through the forums but how crazy, Dr Dulai and Dr Sanborn are my doctors, Dr singh has done scopes on me, and Ramamoorthy is my colorectal surgeon. All smart people. If you live in California, Dr Parambir dulai is a great doctor.


#6

Hi Nlapeyre - is that Dr. Sandborn at UCSD? I see him for my UC and colonoscopies. On my most recent colonoscopy they found an SSA. A nurse told me an option for it may be surgery. I have an appt with his NP so I will get more detail. Just curious if we are talking about the same doctors and it sounds like you went thru colorectal surgery as well and if you have any insight. I was really taken aback when I first heard the word surgery. Thanks!


#7

Hey! yes UCSD! you should private message me. we are in the same boat, tell me your story and ill tell you mine